NextFin news, Germany’s Chief of Defence, Generalinspekteur Carsten Breuer, declared on November 7, 2025, in Berlin that “the war of tomorrow has already begun,” signaling a paradigm shift in the nature of military conflict involving Russia. His comments come amid heightened tensions and ongoing proxy engagements tied to the Ukraine war and broader confrontations between NATO and Russia. Breuer emphasized that Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics—including sabotage, espionage, cyber operations, drone incursions, and targeted disinformation campaigns—constitute an active conflict space well short of full-scale conventional war but indicative of an ongoing hybrid conflict.
Simultaneously, Chancellor Friedrich Merz reinforced the gravity of the threat from Moscow. Speaking at the German Armed Forces’ annual forum, Merz called Russia Europe’s “greatest threat” and announced his intention to build the EU’s strongest army aligned with Germany's status as the world’s third-largest economy. He committed to increasing defense spending to €160 billion by 2029 and expanding Bundeswehr personnel by 60,000 soldiers, focusing on modernization and advanced capabilities. Merz highlighted pervasive hybrid attacks affecting Germany directly and stressed the necessity of urgent reforms in military recruitment and retention to reinforce resilience.
Furthermore, Lieutenant General Alexander Sollfrank, head of Germany's Joint Operational Command, cautioned that Russia possesses the operational capacity to launch a limited, rapid, regional-scale attack on NATO territory potentially as soon as the immediate future—even as Moscow remains entangled in Ukraine. Sollfrank detailed that Russia retains significant air force strength, an intact nuclear and missile arsenal, and enough ground forces, including main battle tanks, to execute limited strikes. He qualified that any such action would hinge on Western military posture and political calculations but affirmed the reality of the threat as within operational feasibility.
The recognition of a de facto ongoing hybrid conflict with credible potential for escalation to limited conventional warfare marks a strategic inflection point for Germany and NATO. The warnings from Germany’s top military leaders align with recent trends of Russian military doctrine that emphasize non-linear warfare prior to or alongside conventional engagement, coupled with nuclear deterrence through intimidation. Russia’s persistent actions, such as drone violations of Polish airspace and cyber sabotage, function as probing tactics aiming to test NATO’s cohesion, readiness, and threshold for response.
This confluence of hybrid aggression and looming kinetic threat underpins Chancellor Merz’s push to materially transform Germany’s military posture. Analytically, this move addresses key structural weaknesses exposed during the initial phases of Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion, including limited rapid deployment ability, outdated equipment, and recruitment shortfalls. The planned defense budget escalation to 3.5% of GDP aligns Germany with NATO’s spending commitments and supports a transition toward a highly capable, conventional deterrent force, potentially altering the strategic balance within the EU and NATO.
Germany’s comprehensive modernization plans—incorporating force expansion, technological upgrades, and structural reforms—also send a political message aimed at reassuring Eastern European NATO members and deterring Russia from further aggressive maneuvers. Nonetheless, these shifts pose internal challenges in execution, require sustained political consensus, and entail substantial economic costs. Germany must also navigate the complexities of EU-wide defense cooperation and structural integration to maximize the deterrence and operational effectiveness of the EU's military capabilities.
Looking forward, the interplay between sustained hybrid conflict and the potential for localized conventional Russian attacks will likely shape European security policy and military planning for the next decade. Analysts caution that Russia’s continued military build-up, despite costly engagements in Ukraine, combined with its doctrine of rapid limited strikes and nuclear coercion, constitues an enduring threat vector necessitating increased vigilance and readiness within NATO.
In conclusion, the statements from Germany’s top general and Chancellor Merz underscore a fundamental shift in the European security environment: conflict with Russia is not merely a possibility but an ongoing reality manifested in multifaceted hybrid warfare with a credible risk of conventional escalation. Germany’s proactive military expansion and reform efforts highlight a strategic imperative to deter aggression, protect national and European security, and maintain NATO’s unified response capacity in the face of evolving threats. As President Donald Trump's administration maintains its foreign policy stance, Western coordination on defense and deterrence remains critical to addressing this complex security landscape.
According to the authoritative German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and the Anadolu Agency, these developments reflect urgent responses from Berlin to the multidimensional Russian threat, combining direct military preparedness with efforts to counter hybrid warfare domains.
Explore more exclusive insights at nextfin.ai.
