Goldman Sachs Warns China’s Prolonged Property Slump May Worsen

Breaking NewsJun. 26, 2025

Summarized by NextFin AI

China's real estate crisis has now entered its fourth year, with analysts suggesting it may decline further before stabilizing.
Goldman Sachs estimates that home prices, which have already dropped by 20%, could fall an additional 10% by 2027.
The report is based on a historical analysis of housing busts across 15 economies since 1960, indicating a median correction period of six years with a total price drop of 30%.
Goldman Sachs defines a housing bust as a price decline of at least 20% from a cyclical peak, suggesting that China's downturn still has significant potential for further decline.

AsianFin -- China’s real estate crisis, now entering its fourth year, may have further to fall before hitting bottom, Goldman Sachs warned in a report released Wednesday.

The investment bank’s analysts estimate that home prices, already down 20% from their peak, could decline another 10% by 2027. The forecast draws on a historical analysis of housing busts across 15 economies since 1960, which found the median correction spans six years with a total price drop of 30%.

Goldman Sachs defines a housing bust as a price decline of at least 20% from a cyclical peak. By that measure, China’s downturn still has room to run.

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Insights

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