NextFin news, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has seen a significant rise in his popularity in September 2025, with approval ratings reaching 50%, according to the Pulso Brasil survey by the Institute of Social, Political and Economic Research (Ipespe). This marks a seven-point increase over two months, reflecting a recovery from earlier declines in public support.
The improvement in Lula's standing comes as his administration has successfully navigated a series of political and economic challenges in Brazil. Notably, the government overcame a hostile climate in Congress earlier this year, including a historic congressional vote that overturned a presidential decree for the first time in 30 years. Lula's administration responded by engaging the Supreme Court to recover parts of its decrees and launched a strong social media campaign targeting opposition parties and centrist groups, which helped shift public discourse in favor of the government.
These political developments unfolded alongside economic factors that influenced public sentiment. After a surge in food prices from September 2024 through May 2025, Brazil has experienced a steady decline in grocery inflation since June, contributing to improved consumer confidence. Data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) showed food-at-home prices fell for three consecutive months through August, with a further decline indicated in September.
Economists warn, however, that food inflation remains a critical issue for Lula's administration, especially with the 2026 presidential election approaching. The Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV Ibre) highlighted risks of renewed inflation due to currency volatility, fluctuations in fresh vegetable prices, and an impending rise in beef prices linked to the cattle cycle. Food prices disproportionately affect poorer populations, making this an important factor in voter behavior.
Despite ongoing tensions with the National Congress and external pressures such as U.S. tariff policies, Lula's government has managed to rebuild strategic support, particularly among middle-class and centrist voters. The Ipespe survey indicated that approval among these groups has notably increased, with 51% approval in the middle class and 49% among centrists, a reversal from earlier in the year when disapproval was dominant.
Political analysts note that Lula's experience and political skill have been key to turning around the government's fortunes. The administration's ability to confront opposition leaders directly and leverage judicial support has helped stabilize its position. Additionally, the weakening of opposition figures and internal divisions have contributed to a more favorable environment for Lula's agenda.
Looking ahead, Lula's administration is preparing to advance legislative measures that will form part of its platform for reelection. Recent congressional approvals of key social programs and economic initiatives are expected to bolster the government's appeal. However, challenges remain, including managing inflationary pressures and maintaining coalition support in Congress.
In summary, as of late September 2025, President Lula's administration in Brazil has reversed a period of declining popularity by overcoming political setbacks, easing economic pressures, and strengthening public confidence, positioning itself more favorably ahead of the 2026 elections.
Sources: Folha de S.Paulo (https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2025/09/lula-acumula-mare-favoravel-e-aplaca-clima-precoce-de-fim-de-governo.shtml), Cuba Si (https://cubasi.cu/en/news/approval-lulas-government-rises-brazil), Valor International (https://valorinternational.globo.com/economy/news/2025/09/26/food-inflation-poses-bigger-threat-to-lula-than-to-trump.ghtml)
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