NextFin news, New Zealand experienced a 3% decline in export values to the United States during the July 2025 quarter, as reported on Monday, amid the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. This data was published by New Zealand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (Mfat) in a market report analyzing US trade figures for the nearly four months following the introduction of a 10% baseline tariff on New Zealand goods by the US government earlier this year.
The tariffs, which were later increased to 15%, have not yet been fully reflected in the trade data. The report highlighted that while exports to the US fell, exports to non-US markets grew by 10.8% compared to the same period the previous year.
Before the tariffs took effect, exports to the US had surged, with increases of 19.6% in March and 21.9% in April 2025 compared to the previous year. However, this was followed by contractions of 4.3% in May and 8.9% in June. July saw a partial recovery with a 7.8% increase in exports compared to July 2024, described by Mfat as an "encouraging though incomplete bounce-back." The ministry cautioned that it was unclear how much of the 3% decline represented permanent versus temporary effects.
Among the commodities affected, New Zealand wine exports to the US were notably hit. Beverage exports, primarily wine, grew by 21.9% in March and 11.5% in April but then declined sharply by 7.8% in May, 10.5% in June, and 40.8% in July, dropping from nearly $70 million to $40 million. The Mfat report stated there was no evidence of a post-tariff recovery for wine exports, indicating a possible permanent shift away from higher-priced New Zealand wine in the US market.
Philip Gregan, chief executive of New Zealand Winegrowers, confirmed a "little jump" in exports before the tariffs and a "definite fall off in July," noting the complexity of the US alcohol supply chain and that the full impact of the tariffs was still unfolding. He explained that some tariff costs were passed on to consumers, while others were absorbed by growers.
Other sectors showed mixed results. Meat exports to the US rose significantly before the tariffs, increasing 66.5% in March 2025 compared to the previous year, exceeding $350 million. However, declines followed in May and June before a 15% rebound in July. Dairy exports were volatile but ended the quarter with a slight 0.1% increase year-on-year.
The tariffs were part of a broader US trade policy under President Donald Trump, who imposed a 10% tariff on New Zealand goods in April 2025, later raised to 15% in August. New Zealand's Trade Minister Todd McClay traveled to the United States in August to discuss the tariffs with US counterparts, seeking to understand and mitigate their impact. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has stated there is no indication that President Trump will reduce the tariff rate.
The US is New Zealand's second-largest export market, with exports totaling approximately $15 billion annually, representing about 21% of New Zealand's total exports. The tariffs have introduced uncertainty and challenges for exporters, particularly in agricultural sectors such as meat, dairy, and wine.
These developments come amid ongoing legal and political debates in the US regarding the legality of Trump's tariffs, with a recent US appeals court ruling questioning their legality but allowing them to remain in place pending further appeals.
Sources: Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (Mfat), New Zealand Winegrowers, Radio New Zealand, The Post (New Zealand), Reuters.
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