NextFin news, San Francisco's Office of Economic Analysis published a report on Monday detailing the long-term economic impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs on the city. The analysis estimates that if the tariffs are upheld by the Supreme Court and no Federal Reserve intervention occurs, San Francisco will lose nearly 18,000 jobs by 2045.
The job losses will span nearly every industry, with the business and professional services sector—including most technology jobs—expected to be hit hardest. Trade and transportation sectors, including wholesalers and truck drivers, will also face significant declines. The losses are attributed primarily to reduced investment and demand caused by sustained price increases on goods due to tariffs.
In addition to job losses, the report projects a 3.7% reduction in personal disposable income for San Franciscans over the next two decades, equivalent to about $5,600 less per capita. Ted Egan, San Francisco's chief economist, explained, "It’s not that people will have less cash; it's that everything will be more expensive." This reflects the tariffs' effect on raising prices across a broad range of consumer goods.
Despite these negative impacts, the report identifies a potential benefit for San Francisco and California as a whole. As tariffs increase the cost of Asian technology imports, domestic manufacturing of electronics and computer hardware is expected to grow. San Francisco alone could gain more than 5,000 manufacturing jobs by 2045, with 44% of that growth in the computer hardware and electronics industry. Egan noted the opportunity for the city to attract more manufacturing work if the tariffs remain in place.
The report was released on Monday, September 15, 2025, and is based on data and projections developed by the city's Controller’s Office since April 2025. It assumes the tariffs remain in effect indefinitely and does not account for potential Federal Reserve policy responses.
The findings come amid ongoing national debates about the economic consequences of tariffs implemented during the Trump administration, with this report providing a localized perspective on San Francisco's economic future under these trade policies.
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