NextFin news, On Saturday, September 20, 2025, it was reported that tariffs imposed by former US President Donald Trump have resulted in a notable divergence in food prices between Latin America and the United States. While consumers in the US face rising prices, staple food items such as meat, coffee, tomatoes, and rice have become cheaper in Latin American markets, particularly in Brazil and Mexico.
At a supermarket on Bolívar Street in Rio de Janeiro, Brazilian shoppers expressed surprise at the falling prices of coffee and meat. This observation aligns with a recent survey by the Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies (Dieese) and the National Supply Company (Conab), which found that prices for these staples dropped in August 2025 compared to July in 24 of Brazil’s 27 state capitals.
Experts attribute the price decreases in Latin America to both natural agricultural cycles and the impact of US tariffs. Leandro Dias from AgroDeri explained that good harvests and high supply cycles in cattle have increased availability, naturally lowering prices. However, the tariffs imposed by the US on Brazilian products have also played a role by reducing exports to the US, leaving more supply in domestic markets.
Economist Douglas Eustaquio of Grupo Boticario confirmed that due to tariffs, products previously destined for the US market remain in Brazil, increasing local supply and lowering prices. Conversely, US consumers are experiencing inflation on these tariffed goods.
The tariffs were imposed by the Trump administration in response to Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court sentencing former President Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years in prison for attempting a coup d’état. The US cited concerns over repression and freedom of expression as reasons for punitive tariffs. The Brazilian government, led by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has criticized these tariffs as unfair, noting the US runs a trade surplus with Brazil.
Between January and July 2025, Brazilian exports to the US reached nearly $23.7 billion, the highest on record for that period, while imports from the US rose 12.6% to $26 billion, resulting in a $2.3 billion US trade surplus with Brazil, according to the Brazil-US Chamber of Commerce.
Similar trends are observed in Mexico, where tomato prices have fallen due to increased domestic supply as producers redirect goods from the US market to local markets. Javier Reyes Escamilla, president of the Central-North Regional Cattlemen’s Union of the State of Mexico, noted that northern producers are selling more in central states, causing prices to drop.
Despite short-term benefits for consumers in producing countries, economists warn of long-term risks. Brazilian economist Dirlene Silva stated that losing access to the US market diminishes incentives for producers to invest in technology and productivity, potentially leading to lower quality and reduced production over time, which could eventually raise prices again.
This report was originally published in Spanish by Confidencial and translated into English by Havana Times. The information is based on interviews and data from Brazilian agricultural experts, economists, and trade organizations, as well as official trade statistics.
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