NextFin News - On December 6, 2025, U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, disclosed during the Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California, that the resolution of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict is close, hinging on the settlement of two major issues: the future of Ukraine's Donbas region, specifically the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), and the status of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. This announcement follows heightened diplomatic engagements including the December 2 visit to Moscow by U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, son-in-law of U.S. President Donald Trump, who met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss peace terms.
Kellogg emphasized that the "last 10 meters to the goal are always the hardest," signifying that while substantial progress has been made, finalizing agreements over these contentious territorial and security concerns remains paramount. The Zaporizhzhia plant, the largest in Europe, currently under Russian control, poses significant safety and geopolitical concerns. The Donbas conflict, ongoing since 2014 and intensified by Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, has resulted in over two million casualties according to Kellogg, highlighting the protracted humanitarian impact.
The U.S. administration under President Trump has reportedly presented draft peace proposals, which include concessions addressing Russian demands regarding contested territories and NATO considerations. Concerns have been raised by Ukrainian and European officials over leaked drafts suggesting substantial compromises by Ukraine, including Russian control over a fifth of Ukrainian territory and restrictions on Ukrainian military capabilities.
Diplomatic endeavors now focus intensively on reconciling these issues, attempting to balance Ukraine's territorial integrity with pragmatic security assurances to Russia. The deal implies the Zaporizhzhia plant would be restarted under International Atomic Energy Agency oversight, with power distribution shared between Russia and Ukraine, indicating intricate negotiations on sovereignty and resource control.
This strategic approach to conflict resolution must account for myriad factors: the international community's demand for Ukrainian sovereignty, the risk of nuclear incident, the humanitarian imperative to end hostilities, and the complex geopolitical stakes involving NATO and Russia. The relatively narrow scope of unresolved issues as outlined by Kellogg suggests that the peace process has entered a critical, high-stakes negotiation phase.
Analyzing the causes behind this diplomatic juncture, the militarily enduring stalemate in Donbas and the unprecedented risk posed by militarized nuclear infrastructure have emerged as uniquely challenging. The Donbas area, heavily contested and under partial Russian control (with estimates indicating over 80% of Donetsk and full Luhansk region control), remains symbolically and strategically pivotal for both Kyiv and Moscow. Meanwhile, Zaporizhzhia's status not only impacts regional energy security but also broader European nuclear safety concerns.
The potential impacts of a peace deal resolving these specific issues are profound. A stable resolution could allow for de-escalation of one of Europe's deadliest conflicts, reduce economic sanctions repercussions by easing tensions, and restore critical energy plant oversight — mitigating the risk of nuclear disasters that could have transnational effects. Conversely, missteps or breakdowns in these talks risk further conflict intensification and geopolitical fragmentation.
From a trend perspective, the involvement of U.S. envoys and senior administration figures indicates an assertive American diplomatic posture aiming to broker peace before transition phases in U.S. political leadership. The announced positions underscore a pragmatic U.S. approach prioritizing tangible conflict resolution on concrete issues rather than broader ideological aims.
Looking forward, the peace process's success will depend on multi-layered diplomacy integrating Ukrainian, Russian, and international stakeholders' interests, alongside careful management of nuclear safety risks. Economically, peace could gradually stabilize Ukraine's battered economy, attract reconstruction investment, and relieve global energy markets perturbed by the conflict. Geostrategically, it may recalibrate NATO-Russia relations and influence future security architecture in Eastern Europe.
In sum, U.S. President Donald Trump's envoy Keith Kellogg's articulation of Donbas and Zaporizhzhia as the key sticking points in Ukraine peace talks signals that the protracted conflict may be approaching a critical resolution stage. The coming weeks and months will be decisive in determining whether the near-confirmation of peace can transition from diplomatic intent to durable reality.
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