NextFin news, The United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on November 16, 2025, that the US and China are on track to conclude a rare earth metals agreement by the end of November, potentially before the Thanksgiving holiday on November 27. This revelation came during an interview aired on Fox News Sunday program. The negotiations take place against the backdrop of renewed diplomatic engagement between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, following their October summit in South Korea.
Bessent underscored that the agreement has not yet been finalized but expressed confidence that China will honor its commitments under the deal. The framework reportedly includes Washington refraining from imposing new tariffs—such as the threatened 100% tariff on Chinese imports—while Beijing agrees to postpone the implementation of stricter export licensing for rare earth minerals and magnetic materials. Notably, Bessent refuted reports suggesting China plans to restrict rare earth exports to US defense contractors, clarifying that such exclusionary export controls contradict the pact's spirit.
The importance of rare earth elements in this agreement is rooted in China's dominant position, controlling nearly 70% of global rare earth mining and approximately 90% of processing capacity. Rare earths like yttrium are critical components in high-technology sectors, including aerospace engines, semiconductor equipment, and advanced military applications. Supply disruptions caused by China's earlier retaliatory export restrictions in April 2025 have exacerbated pressures on global manufacturers. Industry analysts have documented prolonged delivery times and limited quotas on essential elements impacting innovation and production across allied economies.
President Trump described the recent US-China negotiations as "very successful," highlighting a mutual commitment to maintaining "open and free" trade flows of rare earths and other strategic minerals. Furthermore, China has pledged to increase agricultural imports from the United States, signaling a broader economic cooperation dimension beyond mining resources.
Despite this positive trajectory, experts caution the deal may represent a temporary truce rather than a fundamental shift in US-Chinese strategic competition. China's introduction of a "Verified End User" (VEU) system to monitor and control rare earth exports remains a salient concern. This system ostensibly seeks to restrict materials flowing to US military-linked entities, complicating the enforcement of bilateral commitments while allowing China to manage its geopolitical risk.
From an industry perspective, the anticipated agreement aims to alleviate immediate supply chain risks while securing access to critical materials necessary for advanced manufacturing, green energy technologies, and defense modernization. The delicate balancing act between reducing tariff tensions and ensuring strategic resource security underscores the complexity of US-China economic interdependence amid geopolitical rivalry.
Looking ahead, successful completion of the rare earth deal by late November could set a precedent for managing supply chain vulnerabilities through bilateral cooperation rather than unilateral sanctions or export bans. This would likely influence global rare earth markets by stabilizing prices and reducing uncertainty that has previously disrupted multinational supply chains.
However, the durability of the agreement will hinge on rigorous verification mechanisms, mutual trust, and the evolving geopolitical context. Given China's near-monopoly over rare earth processing and the limited alternative supply sources—where global markets have seen only gradual diversification efforts—the United States faces strategic imperatives to develop domestic production and processing capabilities. The ongoing reliance on China exposes US industries to supply shocks amid rising geopolitical tensions.
In conclusion, the expected US-China rare earth accord by November's end marks a critical juncture in reshaping global critical mineral supply dynamics. It reflects a pragmatic approach from the Trump administration to mitigate supply risks without escalating trade conflicts further. Nonetheless, long-term strategic resilience will require complementary policies fostering supply chain diversification, investment in domestic mining, and international partnerships. This deal, therefore, is both a respite and a catalyst for broader strategic shifts in securing critical materials underpinning the future of high-tech and defense sectors worldwide.
According to News.Az and RFI, the deal represents a convergence of geopolitical negotiation and economic necessity, with profound implications for global technology supply chains and US-China relations as of late 2025.
Explore more exclusive insights at nextfin.ai.