NextFin news, On Wednesday, October 8, 2025, XRP experienced downward price pressure as the ongoing US government shutdown delayed the approval process for XRP-spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), dampening investor optimism. The shutdown, now in its eighth day, has stalled key economic data releases and legislative actions, including the Senate vote on stopgap funding bills critical to reopening the government.
The delay in ETF approvals has limited institutional inflows into XRP, causing it to underperform compared to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). XRP fell to a low of $2.85 on October 7, slipping from its previous position as the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization to fifth, overtaken by Binance Coin (BNB) and Tether (USDT). Market intelligence platform Santiment noted a surge in retail fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) around XRP, which historically can signal a potential buying opportunity.
Despite these challenges, optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has buoyed broader crypto market sentiment. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) September meeting minutes, released recently, indicated that most policymakers considered it appropriate to ease monetary policy further this year, fueling expectations of multiple interest rate cuts. However, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in October slightly decreased from 95.1% to 94.1%, and for December from 82.0% to 80.1%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Fed optimism has lifted risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, but the political impasse in the US Senate remains a significant risk. A failure to pass a stopgap funding bill could extend the government shutdown, further delaying XRP-spot ETF launches and weighing on market sentiment.
Institutional demand for XRP is emerging as a new catalyst. Nasdaq-listed Reliance Group Global disclosed in a September 30, 2025, SEC filing that it added approximately $17 million worth of XRP to its digital asset treasury, joining other public companies diversifying their balance sheets with XRP alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Cardano. The company highlighted XRP's speed, low cost, liquidity, banking utility, scalability, and energy efficiency as key attributes.
Technical analysis shows XRP trading near the psychological $3 level, with support at $2.8 and $2.5, and resistance at $3.1, $3.3, and the all-time high of $3.66. The market is closely watching the US Senate's vote on stopgap funding bills, Fed officials' speeches, developments in XRP ETF filings, and regulatory milestones such as Ripple's application for a US-chartered bank license and the stalled Market Structure Bill.
Bearish scenarios include extended government shutdowns delaying ETF approvals, weak demand for crypto ETFs, regulatory setbacks, and competition from SWIFT in the global remittance market. Conversely, a Senate funding bill passage, strong ETF demand, BlackRock's potential XRP ETF filing, increased corporate treasury adoption, and favorable regulatory developments could drive XRP above $3, potentially reaching $3.3 and beyond.
Market participants remain attentive to how these political and regulatory factors will shape XRP's near-term price trajectory amid a complex macroeconomic environment marked by stagflation fears and shifting Fed policy expectations.
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